Whilst the Australian economy simply recorded its biggest contraction since the worldwide financial crisis ultimate region, that’s unlikely to be repeated inside the months in advance if the present day Westpac-MI leading index is something to head via.
However, it’s no longer precisely signaling there are boom instances ahead either.
The survey’s six-months annualized growth rate, an indication of the probable pace of monetary activity relative to Australia’s trend increase fee searching three to nine months into the future, fell to zero.11% in November, down from 0.51% in October.
Although a lower, the tremendous figure indicates that economic increase is in all likelihood to be above fashion — now seen at around 2.75% per annum — in the first half of-of next 12 months.
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So, based on what the index is suggesting, the increase might be Adequate without being amazing.
“The run of 4 consecutive above trend readings is signaling a higher outlook for the first half of-of 2017,” stated Invoice Evans, chief economist at Westpac. “Though, it is disappointing that the increased price seems to, over again, be losing momentum.”
inside the 15 months to August this 12 months, the index had previously printed in the poor territory, a lead indicator, funnily sufficient, for the ugly September quarter GDP report that changed into released at the beginning for this month.
Evans notes that the improvement in the indices growth price within the beyond six months changed into nearly absolutely driven through an improvement inside the survey’s worldwide additives.
“Rising commodity prices (zero.forty nine percent factors), the steepening of the yield curve (zero.41 percentage points) and the raise in the share market (zero.07 percent factors) have played the dominant roles,” he stated.
Offsetting the one’s improvements, he says that its home additives have truely been weakening.
“Dwelling approvals (minus zero.57 percent points), the Westpac-MI purchaser sentiment expectations index (minus 0.13 percent factors) and Westpac-MI unemployment expectation index (minus zero.10 percentage factors) have all subtracted from growth,” he said.
With the index now pointing to the likelihood of barely above trend boom inside the first 1/2 of next 12 months, Evans says he remains cozy along with his forecast for three% GDP boom in 2017 Robot Tip.
However, that self-belief doesn’t extend to the ultra-modern treasury forecasts provided in its mid-12 months economic and monetary outlook (MYEFO) earlier this week.
“We warfare particularly with the government’s MYEFO forecast for 2016/17 which means a common quarterly increase of round 0.eight% according to the region in the December (2016), March (2017) and June (2017) quarters,” says Evans.
“That boom tempo would be around zero.five% above trend – a stretch especially as we see the increase rate of the leading index slowing another time.”